The Stalemate Between the US and Russia and the Ukraine War

     

                                    The Ukraine War has been going on for years and is a never-ending storm that keeps the world at bay; the United States is in a stalemate with Russia that can explode at any moment and transform the threats and wars into something entirely different. The relationship between the United States and Russia is tenuous, from military and humanitarian assistance sent to Ukraine by American efforts and anticipated aid under President Biden, compared to most blame falling on Putin for starting the war—with accusations of his support for separatists in the east—potentially creating even more tension. Recently, however, former President Donald Trump chose to weigh in, stating that unless Russia—or anyone else sustaining the war—entents by a 50-day deadline (which has since changed), he will impose secondary tariffs against Russia (2022). Many are saying this is merely an electoral gimmick; others say this is necessary action that needs to be taken to relieve the financial burden against all collateral damage of the war (ps, essentially, by itself, Ukraine). So it's no surprise this conflict challenges politics, social media rhetoric, and headline news. The Tariffs and the Deadline What are the tariffs Trump is proposing? First, they are secondary tariffs. Second, they are "very severe" if he doesn't hear back from Putin—who's also being connected with the purpose of poker funding after being pro-peace in his preliminary response—within 50 days of his statement (2022). These are supposed to add direct and indirect expenses to anyone working with Russia; therefore, the US would impose a tariff on any nation doing business with Russia. Essentially, then, American businesspersons would be expected to avoid expected revenue from foreign businessmen who do good business with Russia. Essentially, purposely inducing economic failure.

Russia would suffer more than just its economy. Russia's economy is nearly dependent upon its energy sector—oil and gas account for about a third of all Russian revenue for the country, over 60 percent of its exports. If China or India feels they're "uncomfortable" with such tariffs, it effectively puts a dent in Russia's market. But that's easier said than done. The international market for energy is already far too unstable and nations may be less inclined to refuse Russian oil because that means paying more per barrel elsewhere as oil prices increase. Thus, with Trump relying upon economic pressure to provide what diplomacy cannot, there's a lot for a lot of moving parts.

The Aftermath: Beyond Russia

If tariffs are instated, they're not going to make America and Russia feel good. Instead, the international market is a tenuous system to which each participant is connected—higher energy costs will create higher inflation from Berlin to Beijing and Americans won't be spared either. Inflation is a buzzword—Americans will feel it at the pump and in their grocery bills. Moreover, if Russia lashes back with its own tariffs or attempts to negotiate international trading channels—such as deploying its "shadow fleet" of tankers more publicly to hide shipping routes for oil—it creates even more international unrest. It puts everyone into a trade-war situation where all lose—even Ukraine caught in the middle.
How the World’s Reacting

Russia is acting tough with some restraint. Kremlin officials have called Trump’s threats “hollow bluster,” however, one can assume they are still doing the math as Moscow has avoided Western sanctions for quite some time now. This is not new for them. However, such levied tariffs might spread their avoiding measures very thin.

The European Union is nervous—their energy levels are already low and prices are already high—a trade war with the U.S. is not something that they welcome, but they don’t really welcome it. The United Nations has gotten involved and the Secretary General is attempting a request for diplomacy before war, however, like the U.S., no one is making any moves to proactive peace at this time. Meanwhile, domestically, reactions vary—many praise Trump for trying to prevent ground troops by implying an economic attack on Russia that could destabilize all nations involved. Others say that such rhetoric is dangerous and childish.

What Could Happen Next?

As commentators try to predict what will happen next, there are varying results. The good news is that there is a chance, albeit slim, that Trump’s threat could work. If Russia thinks they are going to take too much of an economic hit from a trade war, they may stand down and attempt to negotiate to save face. This could result in a ceasefire or simply a discussion initiated to begin a peace deal. The bad news is that Putin may take such an insult to an all-time low and therefore, stand up to the U.S. If Putin feels cornered, he may fight back even harder and fighting will ensue. Sanctions will flow like soda at a movie theater. The reality is ugly.
The Fif Day Countdown

The Fif Day Countdown Many experts question why Fif days, however—even if there is a sense of urgency, why a desert island date? Is it an arbitrary number—is it a calculated move since he does seem to have decent numbers for this? It's hard to say. To say he's failed in follow up after ultimating is a vast understatement—take the tariffs he's tried to impose against China since he's been in office—all the other things he's done that appears president-like—not to mention his president-like wall—suggests that he wants to box people in but by the same token, there's no follow up. At this point, it's anyone's guess which move it's going to be.

Conclusion

Ultimately, it's about so much more than just tariffs and a careless occurrence two years ago with Ukraine and Russia. It's about ego and world order, the balance and investment that both sides have and what they are literally, willing to kill over or give up in order just to make their point. It's about what Ukraine has to gain what shelter it can offer gullible people and the collateral damage if efforts are fumbled. It's about how connected our world truly is, the tenuous situation in which we all exist because one wrong turn doesn't just render tariffs impotent and devastate a nation, but instead, literal bombs and explosions all around the world.

Final Thoughts

This is a long-simmered war that has come to a head via this situation with Russia and Ukraine. Trump's effort to intervene with a countdown is merely adding fire to an already heated situation. Whether this powerful implication will trigger Russia to make a move or make things worse remains to be seen—but maybe in fif days we'll know. Either way, it shows us where power will be projected—at least for now—in the future. Let's just see what happens.

REFERENCES

1️⃣ New York Times – Ukraine War Coverage
👉 https://www.nytimes.com/spotlight/ukraine

2️⃣ BBC News – Russia-Ukraine War Explained
👉 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589

3️⃣ Council on Foreign Relations – U.S. Response to Ukraine War
👉 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-war-explained