Trump’s Foreign Policy Playbook—Then and Now

Published on 19th June 2025

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🧭 A Quick Preface
This blog takes a wide-angle look at Donald Trump’s foreign policy—his first presidency (2017–2021), what he’s done so far in his second term (2025–present), and where things might be headed next. It’s divided into three sections: historical record, recent actions, and informed forecasts. Only the third is speculative, based on public hints, staff behavior, and leaked drafts.



1. 📜 First-Term Foreign Policy (2017–2021)
Trump's first term was marked by bold, often polarizing shifts in international policy. His strategy centered on a few recurring themes: prioritize U.S. interests above global consensus, work through one-on-one deals rather than alliances, and use economic pressure—especially tariffs—as his main tool.
On trade, Trump launched a tariff war with China, slapping 25% duties on hundreds of billions in imports. China responded with countermeasures, and while the administration claimed victory, U.S. farmers—particularly in the Midwest—were among the hardest hit, facing collapsing exports and relying on federal bailouts.
His North American trade policy replaced NAFTA with the USMCA. While trade flows continued, the new deal tightened rules, particularly in the auto and dairy sectors, to protect U.S. jobs and interests.
In the Middle East, Trump made two major moves. First, he pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which had been seen as a key step in limiting Iran's nuclear program. The withdrawal triggered a spiral of renewed uranium enrichment by Iran and a re-imposition of U.S. sanctions. Second, he brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states—a rare bright spot hailed even by some critics.
Elsewhere in Asia, Trump yanked the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) almost immediately upon taking office. The remaining countries formed a new trade bloc without the U.S., weakening American influence in the Pacific. On climate, he walked away from the Paris Agreement, casting the U.S. as a climate outlier until reentry under Biden in 2021.



2. 📅 What’s Happened So Far in 2025
Just six months into his second term, Trump’s foreign policy is again making headlines—and stirring controversy.
2.1  The Israel–Iran Crisis
On June 18, a missile launched by Iran struck the Soroka Medical Center in Israel. In response, Israel bombed Iran’s Arak nuclear site. Trump publicly demanded Iran's “unconditional surrender” and confirmed that military options were under review. This escalation has reignited fears of a wider Middle East war.
2.2 🌍 G7 Fallout
At the G7 summit in Canada, Trump abruptly left early, citing the Iran crisis. His departure came just as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was appealing for more air defense systems—a signal that Trump’s patience with NATO-style diplomacy may again be wearing thin.
2.3 📈 Tariff Revival
On May 30, Trump doubled existing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. While steelworkers welcomed the move, manufacturers warned it could drive up costs across industries—one projection suggests a refrigerator could be $600 more expensive by Christmas.
2.4 🛡️ NATO Tensions Rise
Trump has shifted the goalpost again. Instead of asking NATO allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense—a standard he criticized during his first term—he now wants 5%. European nations are balking. Spain called the demand “fiscally impossible,” while Poland, more hawkish, said it was “the price of freedom.”
2.5 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine on the Back Burner
While U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine continue, a key internal group—the “Russia pressure task force”—was disbanded quietly in March. This suggests a subtle shift: the U.S. expects Europe to take the lead in sustaining Ukraine, even as Russia's aggression persists.



3. 🔮 What Could Happen Next (2025–2026)
This section is speculative but grounded in what’s known about Trump’s advisers, leaked memos, and public statements. Think of it like a weather forecast—it may change, but it’s worth preparing for.
Middle East: There’s a strong chance of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure. National Security Council insiders are known Iran hawks, and strike plans are reportedly drafted.

Trade: Trump might extend the 50% tariffs to cover not just metals but also cars and tech imports. In a recent rally, he said, “Tariffs till the factories hum again.”

NATO: If allies don’t meet the 5% defense goal, Trump could threaten to pull back U.S. troops from Europe—a dramatic but not unthinkable move given his prior rhetoric.

Ukraine: Future military aid could be tied to Ukraine entering peace talks with Russia. The end of the Ukraine task force implies that Trump is more interested in a negotiated settlement than prolonged support.

Immigration: A sweeping new travel ban—potentially more extensive than the 2017 version—is being circulated in draft form (EO 14161). It could include controversial measures like using Guantánamo Bay for asylum processing.

4. 👥 Why Everyday People Should Care
These aren’t just high-level diplomatic games. Trump’s policies affect real people in real ways.
American steelworkers may benefit from more factory orders and job openings. But industries that depend on steel—like auto and appliances—will pass on higher costs to consumers.

Midwest farmers could find relief if China reopens its market, but the risk of a new trade war threatens to collapse soybean prices again.

Civilians in Israel and Iran now live with the looming threat of wider war.

European taxpayers could see deeper domestic cuts to fund higher defense spending.

Asylum seekers may face longer detention times and fewer legal pathways.

Consumers worldwide might end up paying significantly more for cars, electronics, and household goods.

5. 🎯 Four Key Takeaways
Same Playbook, Hotter World
Trump’s go-to methods—pressure, tariffs, unpredictability—haven’t changed, but the global situation is more volatile now.

Global Partners Are Hedge-Betting
Nations from Europe to Asia are building backup plans in case Trump’s second term throws more curveballs.
Foreign Policy = Campaign Strategy
Every move abroad also plays to U.S. voters at home—especially blue-collar workers in swing states.

High Stakes, Low Margin for Error
With crises already brewing, one misstep could trigger a major geopolitical or economic fallout.

⚠️ Disclaimer
The forecasts in Section 3 are based on public information as of 19 June 2025. They are speculative and may evolve.



📚 Sources
Refer to the original article for full source details, including coverage from Reuters, Politico, BBC, Guardian, CNBC, Axios, Washington Post, and others.



💬 Your Turn
Do you think Trump’s second-term strategy will stabilize global power—or fuel more chaos?
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