🌎 June 18, 2025 •
📉 Fed Stands Still—Dot Plot Says Otherwise
No surprises expected as the U.S. Federal Reserve didn't excite anyone today by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged after a two-day FOMC meeting in D.C. Yet the bigger news came away from the number.
🔍 It's About the Dot Plot
The quarterly release of the Fed's "dot plot"—where members see interest rates—indicates it is less likely to get rate cuts in 2025 as previously projected. Immediately following the meeting, rumors swarmed that there would be at least two cuts this year; yet, with the dot plot and subsequent dialogue, many are leaning toward one or none with inflation as still under watch.
🎙 Powell Speaks
This and more will be heard from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at his 2:30 PM ET press conference today. He will speak tentatively, understanding how far they have come regarding inflation but not with such confidence that they will forge ahead without further progress.
"You can expect us to be making decisions on a meeting by meeting basis," Powell attested in a preview. "We need not only a visual but assurance that inflation is on its targeted 2% possible outcome."
📈 Stocks React
Thus, stocks on Wall Street remained unchanged in a flat position and bond yields crept higher—meaning investors should lower their expectations for any potential relief, at least in the foreseeable future.
⚔️ Trump, Israel, and Potential War with Iran: All Signs Point to Yes
While traders on Wall Street absorbed Powell's press conference, traders in global warfare turned their sights eastward—as the conflict between Israel and Iran reached its boiling point and Washington may soon join the fight.
💣 Trump Wants Iran to Surrender
President Trump held a snap conference today with his military leaders to assess any potential U.S involvement with an Iranian endeavor after Israeli strikes focused on Tehran reportedly targeted missile sites and weapons development efforts.
According to insiders, Trump has halted Israeli designs in the immediate future—or indefinitely—to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei; however, he opened communications with his demand for Unconditional surrender by Iran.
⚔ Military Movements
A series of F-15 and F-35 squadrons are being moved to pre-identified sites in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf. While officials maintain efforts are precautionary measures for the time being, unnamed service members warn that any miscalculations could bring about direct war.
⛽ What This Means for You
Following the latest airstrikes—and expected retaliation—oil prices jumped over $77/barrel as geopolitical risk comes back into play for energy traders. Inflation—which is already dicey—could get worse if world leaders cannot stay out of each other's ways.
🔍 Conclusion
While the Fed appears to try and solidify changes with inflation developments, Washington is set on reducing nothing in the way of diplomatic—or interventionist—actions. With war and economic issues on the table, June will likely prove to be an interesting month for international security.
📌 Sources:
Federal Reserve Announcement (June 18, 2025) – federalreserve.gov
Middle East Developments (Filed June 18, 2025) – reuters.com, axios.com
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